Seven. Hundred. Million.
Moderator: Christopher
-
BelmontShore
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7354
- Joined: Thu Nov 18, 2021 12:25 am
- Location: Valhalla
- Contact:
Seven. Hundred. Million.
Holy hell.
-
Moviephreak
- Posts: 461
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:34 am
Re: Seven. Hundred. Million.
The Dodgers literally just destroyed the MLB salary structure for the next 20 years. LA's owner should not even be allowed at the next CBA negotiation.
-
Christopher
- Posts: 4141
- Joined: Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:18 pm
Re: Seven. Hundred. Million.
Absolutely bonkers contract.
The Dodgers had the leverage of Ohtani pretty clearly not wanting to leave his home/environment in Los Angeles area. But nonetheless Ohtani's agent played their cards right and got an absolutely jaw-dropping deal. Jaw-dropping because -- if you look at this on the pessimistic side -- Ohtani is a DH-only for whom there are no guarantees about his pitching future.
Obviously, the upside is that when he's a healthy two-way player, he was the potential to be an unfathomable 12-WAR player.
Will be interesting to see what's next for the Dodgers this offseason. They can't just wait for Ohtani to fix their rotation in 2025 -- they need to find 2 October-caliber pitchers for 2024, which will not be cheap. (IMO they'd be smart to acquire one through trade; maybe Cease)
Will also be VERY interesting to see the cap hit on the 10/700 contract. You might think it's pretty easy: 70M AAV = 70M cap hit for 10 years. But apparently the deferred money changes the math. There's going to be a lot of unhappiness around MLB if the Dodgers find ways to stay under the biggest cap hit. I've seen estimates that Ohtani's cap hit could be as low as $40M, though the consensus is that it will be at least $50M, maybe $55M. That's no small number for payroll.
The Dodgers had the leverage of Ohtani pretty clearly not wanting to leave his home/environment in Los Angeles area. But nonetheless Ohtani's agent played their cards right and got an absolutely jaw-dropping deal. Jaw-dropping because -- if you look at this on the pessimistic side -- Ohtani is a DH-only for whom there are no guarantees about his pitching future.
Obviously, the upside is that when he's a healthy two-way player, he was the potential to be an unfathomable 12-WAR player.
Will be interesting to see what's next for the Dodgers this offseason. They can't just wait for Ohtani to fix their rotation in 2025 -- they need to find 2 October-caliber pitchers for 2024, which will not be cheap. (IMO they'd be smart to acquire one through trade; maybe Cease)
Will also be VERY interesting to see the cap hit on the 10/700 contract. You might think it's pretty easy: 70M AAV = 70M cap hit for 10 years. But apparently the deferred money changes the math. There's going to be a lot of unhappiness around MLB if the Dodgers find ways to stay under the biggest cap hit. I've seen estimates that Ohtani's cap hit could be as low as $40M, though the consensus is that it will be at least $50M, maybe $55M. That's no small number for payroll.
-
Christopher
- Posts: 4141
- Joined: Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:18 pm
Re: Seven. Hundred. Million.
Well, the cap hit is still $46M per year, but the details are:
Ohtani will earn:
-- $2M per year from 2024 to 2033, the 10 years he actually plays for the Dodgers
-- $68M per year from 2034 to 2043, the following 10 years, during which time he will not be a Dodger
So the calculation puts the cap hit at $46M per year
Ohtani still makes about $50M per year in endorsements, so he's going to be OK
If nothing else, he's placing a big bet on the future of the United States.
Ohtani will earn:
-- $2M per year from 2024 to 2033, the 10 years he actually plays for the Dodgers
-- $68M per year from 2034 to 2043, the following 10 years, during which time he will not be a Dodger
So the calculation puts the cap hit at $46M per year
Ohtani still makes about $50M per year in endorsements, so he's going to be OK
If nothing else, he's placing a big bet on the future of the United States.