Christopher wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 2:44 pm
I think the Phillies will lose in 4 or 5, and I'm peace with that. The Astros are the best team in baseball. They have enough pitching to fill two MLB staffs. They are motivated from last year's loss. They are motivated for Dusty Baker.
We've long since passed the gravy portion of the season. This season is a resounding success. Can we steal a game, even two? Absolutely. Can we beat the Astros four times? I don't see it, unless a combination of bizarro developments and guys continuing to play out of their minds (mostly the pitchers) continues.
I'm trying to compare this to another championship situation that Philadelphia has faced, in terms of how steep of an underdog we are. I don't consider the Super Bowl to be a huge upset.
Maybe the 1985 Stanley Cup, which Flyers lost 4-1 vs. Peak Oilers?
Maybe the 2001 NBA Finals, where we never really had a shot?
The 1993 World Series could come close. But these Astros are better than those Blue Jays, who didn't really have much more pitching than we did. (Their offense was ridiculous, though)
It didn't help that the 2001 Sixers were pretty much a MASH unit when they went into the finals. Game one was a blessing, but yeah then Shaq and Kobe took over.
The 93 Jays outslugged the Philles which by then were all on vapor fumes. Dykstra carried that Series.
I guess you can look at a positive and say the Phils pitchers will be rested for at least the first two games, unless it's a low score first two games then Phils are in trouble coming home.
I can absolutely paint scenarios in which the Phillies stun the Astros. Wheeler & Nola make 4 incredible starts; everyone hits on offense, including with two outs; Alvarado & Dominguez can be fresh and effective for the whole series without mishap; Dusty Baker makes a managerial blunder or two; the Astros are intimidated by playing in Citizens Bank Park
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It’s cheaper to fly to Houston, buy a ticket for Game 1, and then fly back to Philly than buying an standing room only ticket for Game 3 in CBP.
Good, great teams win games like that but also, a break here or there and maybe the mariners or yanks at least make it a series. Houston is very good but not like they were blowing the teams out of the water.
Just for funsies:
Pitching Nola in Games 1 and 5 (which appears to now be the plan) means he'd be available for an inning or two in Game 7, on two day's rest.
By no means do I take what the Astros have done lightly- they are a great team. But facing the Mariners (very close series, totally untested playoff team) and the Yankees with a shell of a lineup outside of Judge and no where near the pen we are used to seeing, I don't see a steamroll. The Phillies navigating 2 in STL, beating the defending champs in 4, and taking out the team that beat the Dodgers in 5, to me, sounds like the much harder road.
Houston is the better team, but the Nats and Braves both found ways to beat them with rosters that I would say are on par or worse than what the Phillies have right now.
As everyone said, split in Houston and we have something here.
I can't see them dropping any pitchers. So, in my quest to find a spot for Maton on the roster, I think they should drop Guthrie. I'll take my chances on having Vierling & Maton as the backup outfielders. Sosa can play the outfield in an emergency too. I just like Maton's bat, especially as a lefty, better than Guthrie's.