The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Moderator: Christopher

sentinelhyder
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by sentinelhyder »

FolesMVP09 wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:47 pm
sentinelhyder wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:41 pm 3/33 for Eflin would be a steal. he was penciled as their no. 3 starter. he could start and/or relieve. they paid Knebel 10MM and paid robertson more than that a couple years ago. hunter was almost $10MM.
Too risky with his injury history
$130MM change and tied up already. 2 starters. gotta take risks with value somewhere.

but as Christopher pointed out, Eflin is looking for more than he proposed so moot point.
Christopher
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by Christopher »

So, there's tons of money to spend. To me, it seems fait accompli now that we're getting an All-Star shortstop. So here's my thoughts:

Let's start with the easy piece. Many of us seem to agree that Dansby Swanson should not be in consideration. I strongly agree. Plus, I've always disliked him, so it's a bonus to just cross his ass off the list.

In my view, you can't go wrong with either Turner or Bogaerts, while Correa has the biggest mystery mix of huge upside and legitimate concerns. He's the youngest and I think you could still argue that he's pre-peak, or at least that he hasn't yet had what will end up as his best season. Obviously, though, there's the injury risk, and I have to be honest that it's a con for me that the guy hasn't stolen a base since 2019. This roster needs more speed.

So, Turner or Bogaerts? They are remarkably similar players. The way the Turner free agency is unfolding, with that highlight video narrated by Jon Hamm, I think he's looking for one of the biggest scores in FA history. And they may be banking on the Phillies being involved to drive up the price (even if Philly is his preferred destination, which is entirely possible). The dance could extend until late January. Turner suitors could be willing to walk away as long as Bogaerts and Correa are still out there, and vice versa. Boston of course could still be in play on Bogaerts. I think the fact that Bogaerts is a Boras guy helps the Phillies at this point, so keep an eye on that.

While all this is going on, there are other things the Phillies will need to get done.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Just no way of knowing at this point how it will go, in terms of truly interested teams and what this glut of talent at one position might do to the market. Will one get spooked and sign earlier, so as not to lose a game of musical chairs?

I would be happy with Turner or Bogaerts (which is an easy thing to say), but I do not think Turner is worth 20% more (money or years) than Bogaerts.

One other tidbit to put out there, I think Bogaerts could play 3B (Turner never has), while alternately Turner could be comfortable at 2B, which seems like less of a flexibility need, IF they think Stott can handle 2B.
Michael Jack
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by Michael Jack »

The thing Turner adds that Bogaerts doesn't, is speed. The stolen base is coming back next year, with the rules changes. But why not sign both and put Bogaerts at 1B?
Christopher
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by Christopher »

If you're going to sign a 1B, I want Jose Abreu on a 2/50 deal. But I hadn't gotten to that part of my vision yet!
phtown
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by phtown »

Bogaerts defense is below average too, right?
sentinelhyder
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by sentinelhyder »

Christopher wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:02 am So, there's tons of money to spend. To me, it seems fait accompli now that we're getting an All-Star shortstop. So here's my thoughts:

Let's start with the easy piece. Many of us seem to agree that Dansby Swanson should not be in consideration. I strongly agree. Plus, I've always disliked him, so it's a bonus to just cross his ass off the list.

In my view, you can't go wrong with either Turner or Bogaerts, while Correa has the biggest mystery mix of huge upside and legitimate concerns. He's the youngest and I think you could still argue that he's pre-peak, or at least that he hasn't yet had what will end up as his best season. Obviously, though, there's the injury risk, and I have to be honest that it's a con for me that the guy hasn't stolen a base since 2019. This roster needs more speed.

So, Turner or Bogaerts? They are remarkably similar players. The way the Turner free agency is unfolding, with that highlight video narrated by Jon Hamm, I think he's looking for one of the biggest scores in FA history. And they may be banking on the Phillies being involved to drive up the price (even if Philly is his preferred destination, which is entirely possible). The dance could extend until late January. Turner suitors could be willing to walk away as long as Bogaerts and Correa are still out there, and vice versa. Boston of course could still be in play on Bogaerts. I think the fact that Bogaerts is a Boras guy helps the Phillies at this point, so keep an eye on that.

While all this is going on, there are other things the Phillies will need to get done.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Just no way of knowing at this point how it will go, in terms of truly interested teams and what this glut of talent at one position might do to the market. Will one get spooked and sign earlier, so as not to lose a game of musical chairs?

I would be happy with Turner or Bogaerts (which is an easy thing to say), but I do not think Turner is worth 20% more (money or years) than Bogaerts.

One other tidbit to put out there, I think Bogaerts could play 3B (Turner never has), while alternately Turner could be comfortable at 2B, which seems like less of a flexibility need, IF they think Stott can handle 2B.
what's "tons of money?"
Christopher
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by Christopher »

sentinelhyder wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:57 pm
what's "tons of money?"
This is a good resource: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resour ... l/phillies

Current estimated payroll is $179 million after being $242 million this season. That takes into account the arbitration raises (Hoskins, most significantly).

Even if they don't go all the way back up to $242 million, there's room to do big things.
sentinelhyder
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by sentinelhyder »

Bohm, Stott, Marsh, Falter back. Bellati, Brogdon, Vierling?

as far as signings, I don't see any room for Yoshida unfortunately. Nothing to do with money but with Harper, Castellanos, Schwarber, no room for a LFer.
FolesMVP09
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by FolesMVP09 »

sentinelhyder wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:33 pm Bohm, Stott, Marsh, Falter back. Bellati, Brogdon, Vierling?

as far as signings, I don't see any room for Yoshida unfortunately. Nothing to do with money but with Harper, Castellanos, Schwarber, no room for a LFer.
I wish that they could find a way to trade Nick

Bellatti, Brogdon, Alvarado, Dominguez are the known bullpen pieces
I expect Falter to be in the rotation to start the year
Bohm, Stott & Marsh need to take big steps forward next year or Phils will have to go in a different direction by 2024
Captain Obvious
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Re: The Philadelphia Phillies 2022-2023 Off-Season Thread: Nov 6th, 2022

Post by Captain Obvious »

Christopher wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:24 pm If you're going to sign a 1B, I want Jose Abreu on a 2/50 deal. But I hadn't gotten to that part of my vision yet!
A) Wouldn't Rizzo be a chaeper option?

B) Wouldn't a Hall/Realmuto/Veteran be a cheaper option?
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