PhilaPhans

I'm probably too pessimistic, but I think you might be too optimistic, Buff.

First off, we have to get out of our own division, which has the World Champions (who won't be as injury-hobbled this year) and Mets, who added bats and Max Scherzer.

Christopher wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 5:40 pm I'm probably too pessimistic, but I think you might be too optimistic, Buff.

First off, we have to get out of our own division, which has the World Champions (who won't be as injury-hobbled this year) and Mets, who added bats and Max Scherzer.

The Mets don't have the best track records with their big free agent signings, and neither do 37 year old pitchers.

Christopher wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 5:40 pm I'm probably too pessimistic, but I think you might be too optimistic, Buff.

First off, we have to get out of our own division, which has the World Champions (who won't be as injury-hobbled this year) and Mets, who added bats and Max Scherzer.

I think you are being realistic. Phils will be 500ish at best

He’s hurt again. We can start there. It’s not the best scenario with him, but it just comes down to when you trust people that tell you things and they tell you things about the player, overwhelmingly in my history of doing this … I definitely can identify when an organization is extremely sour on a player and this is that player. Is it impossible that he can come back in 2023 or this year at some point? I don’t know. But I am not optimistic. I am sorry. I am just not optimistic. And a lot of it probably has to do with the player too. I think that the Marlins have done all they can. Really. I’ve said this before, I don’t hold the Marlins accountable. Should I hold the Marlins accountable for making that trade? Maybe. There were some red flags there when they made that trade. I’m sorry, man. I’m just not seeing it. It’s not like I’m getting people telling me that I’m wrong. I’m getting people that are giving me examples of guys who are just left for you know what and then came back five years later and all of a sudden were like “Oh they’re good again.” I think that’s what you have to hope. I think you have to hope that eventually, he’s pitching and pitching for the Marlins. If spring training was to start today and I had to guess, I would say that Sixto would not be throwing a pitch for a while again. And I don’t know exactly what’s going on or what’s wrong or exactly, but there is something going on again with him.

Craig Mish on Sixto Sánchez.


Love that JT trade.

SS had great stats during his time in the Phillies league systems. The red flags were the downtimes that he had due to a sore shoulder. When healthy, he threw the heck out of the ball but that was when healthy. Under six foot tall fire ballers like SS usually have a short shelf life. Ironically, his alternative prospect for the Marlins in the JT trade was Spencer Howard who also had arm issues

I would have been perfectly happy with Sixto Sanchez having a good MLB career with the Marlins ... and still loved the Realmuto trade and extension. It was the right trade for the Phillies, regardless of Sanchez's status. We can be grateful that the timing worked out for the Phillies, while also being bummed for Sanchez and, to a lesser extent, the Marlins.

I think it also means the Phillies will have to weigh things very carefully with Abel and Painter in the next couple of years. If there's ever a point where another team makes a big offer of an established MLB star in return for one of them, you have to weigh things very carefully. They could be the next Cole Hamels. Or the next Kyle Drabek/Sixto Sanchez.

If this thing is ever settled. we will see if the Phils take advantage of any increases to the luxury cap

It's going to be crazy if/when the lockout ends. A two-week frenzy of the unsigned free agents signing. I read that trades will be harder to make immediately, because teams haven't all been able to scout other team's prospects and get the most updated information need to assess potential trades. That could really hurt a team like Oakland, which wanted to move some contracts but might have to wait on them until midseason.

Meanwhile, owners/GMs will probably try to take advantage of free agents who are eager to sign contracts after the long wait. Some free agents, if there's TOO much lowballing, might decide to sit out that start of the season and wait for teams to get more desperate.

Some teams -- the Marlins, I've read -- may not spend much at all after the lockout, as they're worried about how the lockout is going to affect 2022 revenue and don't want to add payroll. That might create an opening for the Phillies is there are fewer suitors for a guy like Castellanos. But -- as you said -- it's going to be 100% based on how much the Phillies are willing to spend. I would tend to think they're more like the Marlins than a free-spending team, but they absolutely have to consider the Harper/Wheeler/Realmuto window and weigh the downside of failing to get to the playoffs this year.

Christopher wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 6:01 pm It's going to be crazy if/when the lockout ends. A two-week frenzy of the unsigned free agents signing. I read that trades will be harder to make immediately, because teams haven't all been able to scout other team's prospects and get the most updated information need to assess potential trades. That could really hurt a team like Oakland, which wanted to move some contracts but might have to wait on them until midseason.

Meanwhile, owners/GMs will probably try to take advantage of free agents who are eager to sign contracts after the long wait. Some free agents, if there's TOO much lowballing, might decide to sit out that start of the season and wait for teams to get more desperate.

Some teams -- the Marlins, I've read -- may not spend much at all after the lockout, as they're worried about how the lockout is going to affect 2022 revenue and don't want to add payroll. That might create an opening for the Phillies is there are fewer suitors for a guy like Castellanos. But -- as you said -- it's going to be 100% based on how much the Phillies are willing to spend. I would tend to think they're more like the Marlins than a free-spending team, but they absolutely have to consider the Harper/Wheeler/Realmuto window and weigh the downside of failing to get to the playoffs this year.

They just need so much

CF
LF
and then someone else depending on how they approach a DH
+ they need more than Knebel for the bullpen
and they need another starter with Eflin's injury and no depth

I expect them to sign Schwarber

If there's a place where they go cheap, I'd say let it be starting pitcher. (I know, I know, that has bitten them in the ass multiple times)

I want bats and quality bullpen arms. I think they can be OK with Nola/Wheeler/Suarez/Gibson and an innings eater until Eflin gets back. Besides, the FA starting pitchers I was interested in are essentially gone. The big names left, I think will be overpaid gambles.